Activity 1

Wave-field Modelling

Aim: To develop wave energy distribution and dynamics in time and space for the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea along Latvia (Kurzeme)

Objectives and expected outcomes:

1.1. To adapt a wave property change generation model to the specifics of the coastline along Latvia.

Description: The WAM wave model, which is currently the most suitable for the purposes of the project, will be adapted and calibrated in view of the specifics of the coastline along Latvia based on the available data and previous developments.

Outcome: A model which is adapted to the needs of the project.

1.2. Past wave property change calculations

Description: Simulations will be performed with the WAM wave model using the geostrophic winds database from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (wind data every 6 h). The simulations will be performed for a period of approximately 40 years (starting from 1970). The regions in which the changes are the most significant will be identified.

Outcome: Data regarding the wave height, direction and period will be obtained (possibly some additional information). Calculated wave energy and changes of it over time and along the coastline. The data (model outputs) will be summarised in a database for further use in the development of GIS layers (as necessary) and the analytical processing in Activity 3. 

1.3. Development of future scenarios 

Description: Wave-field simulation will be performed for a future climate scenario for the coastal zone along Latvia (Kurzeme) in the Baltic Sea. The choice of the future climate scenario will be based on the climate scenarios available at the particular moment and their suitability for the purposes of the research, including evaluations of the regional (CORDEX) and global (IPCC) climate projections. 

Outcome: Data (model outputs) regarding wave-field changes according to a future climate scenario